Fed Watch Dashboard™
A macro intelligence engine tracking the 12 indicators driving Fed rate decisions — with transparent model scoring, market comparison, and institutional positioning context.
FRED API · Updated: Jul 24, 2026, 11:42 AM · Refreshes hourly
Persistent inflation well above target and strong labor conditions signal upward rate pressure.
Strong agreement among inflation indicators. Strong agreement among labor market indicators. Strong agreement among financial conditions indicators.
Capped at 72%. Real-world macro models carry inherent uncertainty the Fed itself acknowledges.
What Changed: No significant shift from last month. Signal and active factors are unchanged.
The Three Forces
Fed Decision FrameworkRate decisions are driven by the balance between economic demand, labor markets, and inflation pressures. When all three signal hot → hike lean. When all cooling → cut lean. When split → hold.
Inflation moderately above target. Keeps the Fed cautious about easing.
Labor market remains healthy. Limits urgency to cut rates.
Financial conditions broadly normal. No strong rate signal from markets.
Historically Associated Sector Impacts
Sectors that have historically been associated with Hike Lean macro environments. Based on historical patterns — not a prediction of future performance.
Historically associated with. Not a prediction or recommendation. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.
Model vs. Market
Model Divergence: High — The model is significantly more hawkish than market pricing.
Source: 2-Year Treasury vs Fed Funds Rate spread (market rate pricing proxy)
FOMC Meeting Outlook
Signal fades toward neutral as uncertainty increases over future meetings. Based on current macro data — not FOMC dates.
Monetary Policy
Inflation
Fed target: 2% Core PCE (YoY)
Labor & Market Conditions
Smart Money vs. Macro Environment
Filing data currently unavailable.
Filing activity data is currently unavailable.
Based on publicly disclosed 13F filings. Positions reflect holdings at time of filing. The word “appears” is used intentionally — this is observation, not prediction.
Similar Historical Conditions
Historical periods with similar inflation, labor, and financial conditions signals. Shown for context only — not a prediction of future Fed action.
PCE near 2.5%, unemployment at 3.7%, strong GDP growth and fiscal stimulus.
Inflation below target, labor recovering from 2008. Fed finally normalized policy.
Inflation near target, labor market healthy, but trade war uncertainty weighed.
Educational Research Only — Not Investment Advice
This dashboard is educational research based on public economic data (FRED) and publicly disclosed institutional filing data (13F / STOCK Act). It is not investment advice and should not be used to make investment decisions.
Rate probabilities are model-generated estimates derived from macro indicators and may differ significantly from actual Federal Reserve decisions or market expectations. The FOMC considers a broad range of qualitative and quantitative factors not captured in this model. Confidence scores are intentionally capped to reflect inherent macro uncertainty.
Data: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · 13F Holdings via SEC EDGAR · InvestorLens does not make predictions or forecasts. Always consult a licensed financial advisor.