Will the Colorado Rockies win more than 65.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?
This market will resolve to "O 65.5" if the Colorado Rockies win more than 65.5 games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If at any point it becomes statistically impossible for the Colorado Rockies to record more than 65.5 wins per the rules of the MLB, the corresponding market will resolve to "U …
Probability
39%
Trading Volume
$997
Expiration
Oct 5, 2026
Affected Stocks
2
Affected ETFs
4
AI Summary
This event creates macro uncertainty across asset classes. Institutional positioning in defensive sectors and safe-haven assets typically adjusts in advance of binary macro outcomes.
Playbook: Macro Event · Confidence: 50% · Educational research only — not investment advice.
AI Consensus™
Signal alignment across all data sources
Prediction Markets
NeutralPrediction market consensus shows 39% probability. Market leans against this outcome.
1 data point
Institutions (13F)
BearishAnalysis of 20 tracked institutional positions in affected equities shows net selling (score: 29/100). Data sourced from public 13F filings with standard 45-day reporting lag.
20 data points
Corporate Insiders
NeutralNo recent insider transactions detected in affected companies. Absence of data is not confirmation of neutral positioning.
Congressional Trades
NeutralNo recent STOCK Act disclosures detected for affected tickers. Congressional members have 45-day reporting windows for transactions.
ETF Flows
BearishETF flow analysis for sector-correlated funds shows outflows (score: 29/100), based on institutional ETF holdings from 13F disclosures.
News Sentiment
NeutralNews and momentum sentiment score: 39/100. Derived from prediction market probability trajectory and volume trends. This is not a direct news feed analysis.
Divergence Detector™ — No Major Divergences
Signal alignment is relatively consistent across data sources. Market and institutional signals do not materially conflict for this event.
Prediction Market Signal
Source: Polymarket
Current Probability
39%
Trading Volume
$997
Expiration
Oct 5, 2026
Source: Polymarket · Updated every 5 minutes · Prediction markets reflect crowd probability estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Affected Sectors
Expected market impact based on historical event playbooks
Technology
MediumMacro uncertainty typically reduces growth multiple expansion.
Financials
MediumCredit conditions and rate expectations shift with macro outcomes.
Consumer Staples
LowDefensive positioning favors non-cyclical earnings.
Utilities
LowRate-sensitive safe haven in uncertain environments.
Affected ETFs
Exposure scores based on sector correlation and historical reaction patterns
| ETF | Exposure | Direction |
|---|---|---|
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 70 | ◆ Mixed |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond | 65 | ▲ Positive |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 60 | ▲ Positive |
VIX Volatility Index (proxy) | 80 | ▲ Positive |
Affected Stocks
Expected sensitivity based on revenue exposure and historical reaction patterns
| Stock | Sensitivity | Expected Impact |
|---|---|---|
BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway | Low | ▲ Positive Defensive value positioning with diversified business mix. |
WMT Walmart | Low | ▲ Positive Consumer staples trade-down beneficiary in uncertain environments. |
Institutional Positioning
Source: SEC 13F filings · 45-day reporting lag · Educational research only
Net Direction
Net Selling
Positions Tracked
20
13F Score
29/100
Recent 13F Changes (Last 90 Days)
SPY · STATE STR SPDR S&P 500 ETF T
$2.8B
position value
SPY · STATE STR SPDR S&P 500 ETF T
$789.1M
position value
SPY · SPDR S&P 500 ETF TR
$198.9M
position value
GLD · SPDR GOLD TR
$74.0M
position value
GLD · SPDR GOLD TR
$73.9M
position value
GLD · SPDR GOLD TR
$67.6M
position value
SPY · SPDR S&P 500 ETF TR
$60.0M
position value
GLD · SPDR GOLD TR
$42.9M
position value
GLD · SPDR GOLD TR
$40.9M
position value
SPY · SPDR S&P 500 ETF TR
$39.5M
position value
WMT · WALMART INC
$31.3M
position value
WMT · WALMART INC
$7.8M
position value
SPY · SPDR S&P 500 ETF TR
$3.0M
position value
WMT · WALMART INC
$2.0M
position value
SPY · SPDR S&P 500 ETF TR
$1.7M
position value
Top Institutional Holders of Affected Assets
SPY · STATE STR SPDR S&P 500 ETF T
$42.0B
market value
GLD · SPDR GOLD TR
$14.8B
market value
WMT · WALMART INC
$4.8B
market value
SPY · SPDR S&P 500 ETF TR
$4.7B
market value
SPY · STATE STR SPDR S&P 500 ETF T
$3.2B
market value
SPY · SPDR S&P 500 ETF TR
$2.9B
market value
SPY · STATE STR SPDR S&P 500 ETF T
$2.8B
market value
WMT · WALMART INC
$2.1B
market value
SPY · STATE STR SPDR S&P 500 ETF T
$789.1M
market value
WMT · WALMART INC
$708.2M
market value
Insider Activity
Source: SEC Form 4 filings · Corporate executives and directors · Educational research only
Form 4 insider data integration coming soon.
Corporate insider transactions (CEO, CFO, Directors) will be cross-referenced against affected tickers when available.
Congressional Activity
Source: STOCK Act disclosures · 45-day reporting window · Educational research only
No STOCK Act disclosures found for affected tickers in the past 90 days.
Congressional members have a 45-day window to report transactions.
AI Interpretation
Research synthesis across all available signals · Not investment advice
Prediction markets currently price this event at 39%, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the outcome. Institutional positioning across affected equities is bearish based on 20 tracked positions from public 13F filings. Overall signal alignment is classified as Mixed, suggesting the information ecosystem is relatively mixed around this event. All data sourced from public disclosures. Educational research only — not investment advice.
Data Sources
Event Alerts
Get notified when the information ecosystem shifts around this event
Probability Spike
Market probability moves ±10pp
Institutional Rotation
Large 13F position changes in affected assets
Major Divergence
Market expects outcome; institutions disagree
Congressional Trade
New STOCK Act disclosure for affected tickers
Consensus Shift
Alignment label changes between sessions
New Event
High-probability event appears in your watchlist