Will the Republican Party win the TX-31 House seat?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-list…
Probability
86%
Trading Volume
$10K
Expiration
Nov 3, 2026
Affected Stocks
4
Affected ETFs
5
AI Summary
Election outcomes create sector rotation opportunities as market participants price in policy changes. Infrastructure, defense, healthcare, financial regulation, and energy policy are typically most affected. Specific candidate positioning matters significantly.
Playbook: U.S. Election / Political Transition · Confidence: 75% · Educational research only — not investment advice.
AI Consensus™
Signal alignment across all data sources
Prediction Markets
BullishPrediction market consensus shows 86% probability. Market participants are highly confident in this outcome.
1 data point
Institutions (13F)
BullishAnalysis of 28 tracked institutional positions in affected equities shows net buying (score: 98/100). Data sourced from public 13F filings with standard 45-day reporting lag.
28 data points
Corporate Insiders
NeutralNo recent insider transactions detected in affected companies. Absence of data is not confirmation of neutral positioning.
Congressional Trades
NeutralNo recent STOCK Act disclosures detected for affected tickers. Congressional members have 45-day reporting windows for transactions.
ETF Flows
BullishETF flow analysis for sector-correlated funds shows inflows (score: 98/100), based on institutional ETF holdings from 13F disclosures.
News Sentiment
BullishNews and momentum sentiment score: 86/100. Derived from prediction market probability trajectory and volume trends. This is not a direct news feed analysis.
Divergence Detector™ — No Major Divergences
Signal alignment is relatively consistent across data sources. Market and institutional signals do not materially conflict for this event.
Prediction Market Signal
Source: Polymarket
Current Probability
86%
Trading Volume
$10K
Expiration
Nov 3, 2026
Source: Polymarket · Updated every 5 minutes · Prediction markets reflect crowd probability estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Affected Sectors
Expected market impact based on historical event playbooks
Defense
HighBoth parties have increased defense budgets; geopolitical posture diverges.
Infrastructure
HighBoth parties support infrastructure but through different mechanisms.
Healthcare
HighDrug pricing, ACA, and Medicare policy differ dramatically by party.
Financial Services
HighRegulatory stance on banks, crypto, and fintech diverges significantly.
Renewable Energy
HighIRA credits, green subsidies highly sensitive to political outcome.
Traditional Energy
HighDrilling permits, pipeline policy, EPA stance differ by party.
Affected ETFs
Exposure scores based on sector correlation and historical reaction patterns
| ETF | Exposure | Direction |
|---|---|---|
ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense | 80 | ▲ Positive |
XHE SPDR Healthcare Equipment | 70 | ◆ Mixed |
ICLN iShares Global Clean Energy | 85 | ◆ Mixed |
XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR | 75 | ◆ Mixed |
KBE SPDR S&P Bank ETF | 70 | ◆ Mixed |
Affected Stocks
Expected sensitivity based on revenue exposure and historical reaction patterns
| Stock | Sensitivity | Expected Impact |
|---|---|---|
LMT Lockheed Martin | High | ▲ Positive Defense prime benefits regardless of outcome; budget levels diverge modestly. |
GEO GEO Group | High | ◆ Mixed Private prison operator highly sensitive to immigration policy stance. |
CVS CVS Health | Medium | ◆ Mixed ACA and drug pricing policy affects pharmacy benefit managers. |
FSLR First Solar | High | ◆ Mixed IRA domestic manufacturing credits directly tied to political outcome. |
Institutional Positioning
Source: SEC 13F filings · 45-day reporting lag · Educational research only
Net Direction
Net Buying
Positions Tracked
28
13F Score
98/100
Recent 13F Changes (Last 90 Days)
CVS · CVS HEALTH CORP
$229.2M
position value
FSLR · FIRST SOLAR INC
$100.1M
position value
CVS · CVS HEALTH CORP
$90.0M
position value
CVS · CVS HEALTH CORP - US
$58.3M
position value
FSLR · FIRST SOLAR INC - US
$53.8M
position value
FSLR · FIRST SOLAR INC
$53.4M
position value
CVS · CVS HEALTH CORP - US
$47.5M
position value
CVS · CVS HEALTH CORP
$44.4M
position value
FSLR · FIRST SOLAR INC - US
$42.8M
position value
GEO · GEO GROUP INC/THE - US REIT
$15.0M
position value
CVS · CVS HEALTH CORP
$13.7M
position value
LMT · LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP
$8.0M
position value
LMT · LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP
$6.8M
position value
GEO · GEO GROUP INC NEW
$6.4M
position value
GEO · GEO GROUP INC
$5.4M
position value
Top Institutional Holders of Affected Assets
LMT · LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP
$1.3B
market value
FSLR · FIRST SOLAR INC
$1.2B
market value
CVS · CVS HEALTH CORP
$1.0B
market value
CVS · CVS HEALTH CORP
$861.1M
market value
CVS · CVS HEALTH CORP
$725.3M
market value
CVS · CVS HEALTH CORP
$329.1M
market value
LMT · LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP
$241.1M
market value
LMT · LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP
$238.5M
market value
FSLR · FIRST SOLAR INC
$229.8M
market value
CVS · CVS HEALTH CORP
$229.2M
market value
Insider Activity
Source: SEC Form 4 filings · Corporate executives and directors · Educational research only
Form 4 insider data integration coming soon.
Corporate insider transactions (CEO, CFO, Directors) will be cross-referenced against affected tickers when available.
Congressional Activity
Source: STOCK Act disclosures · 45-day reporting window · Educational research only
No STOCK Act disclosures found for affected tickers in the past 90 days.
Congressional members have a 45-day window to report transactions.
AI Interpretation
Research synthesis across all available signals · Not investment advice
Prediction markets currently price this event at 86%, reflecting elevated consensus that this outcome will materialize. Institutional positioning across affected equities is bullish based on 28 tracked positions from public 13F filings. Overall signal alignment is classified as Weak Alignment, suggesting the information ecosystem is relatively mixed around this event. All data sourced from public disclosures. Educational research only — not investment advice.
Data Sources
Event Alerts
Get notified when the information ecosystem shifts around this event
Probability Spike
Market probability moves ±10pp
Institutional Rotation
Large 13F position changes in affected assets
Major Divergence
Market expects outcome; institutions disagree
Congressional Trade
New STOCK Act disclosure for affected tickers
Consensus Shift
Alignment label changes between sessions
New Event
High-probability event appears in your watchlist