Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in August 2026?
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of wh…
Probability
0%
Trading Volume
$999
Expiration
Aug 1, 2026
Affected Stocks
4
Affected ETFs
4
AI Summary
Bitcoin and crypto market movements affect publicly traded crypto-correlated equities including exchanges, miners, and fintech firms with crypto exposure. Regulatory clarity or crackdowns have outsized impacts on the sector.
Playbook: Crypto / Bitcoin · Confidence: 80% · Educational research only — not investment advice.
AI Consensus™
Signal alignment across all data sources
Prediction Markets
BearishPrediction market consensus shows 0% probability. Market assigns low probability to this outcome.
1 data point
Institutions (13F)
NeutralAnalysis of 50 tracked institutional positions in affected equities shows roughly neutral positioning (score: 44/100). Data sourced from public 13F filings with standard 45-day reporting lag.
50 data points
Corporate Insiders
NeutralNo recent insider transactions detected in affected companies. Absence of data is not confirmation of neutral positioning.
Congressional Trades
NeutralNo recent STOCK Act disclosures detected for affected tickers. Congressional members have 45-day reporting windows for transactions.
ETF Flows
NeutralETF flow analysis for sector-correlated funds shows neutral flows (score: 44/100), based on institutional ETF holdings from 13F disclosures.
News Sentiment
BearishNews and momentum sentiment score: 0/100. Derived from prediction market probability trajectory and volume trends. This is not a direct news feed analysis.
Divergence Detector™ — No Major Divergences
Signal alignment is relatively consistent across data sources. Market and institutional signals do not materially conflict for this event.
Prediction Market Signal
Source: Polymarket
Current Probability
0%
Trading Volume
$999
Expiration
Aug 1, 2026
Source: Polymarket · Updated every 5 minutes · Prediction markets reflect crowd probability estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Affected Sectors
Expected market impact based on historical event playbooks
Crypto Exchanges & Infrastructure
HighTrading volumes and fee revenue correlate strongly with crypto prices.
Bitcoin Miners
HighMining economics improve exponentially with higher BTC prices.
Fintech
MediumPayment fintechs with crypto exposure benefit; others see competitive pressure.
Traditional Finance
LowBanks with crypto custody or trading desk exposure affected marginally.
Affected ETFs
Exposure scores based on sector correlation and historical reaction patterns
| ETF | Exposure | Direction |
|---|---|---|
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust | 98 | ▲ Positive |
FBTC Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund | 98 | ▲ Positive |
ARKW ARK Next Generation Internet ETF | 65 | ▲ Positive |
BKCH Global X Blockchain ETF | 88 | ▲ Positive |
Affected Stocks
Expected sensitivity based on revenue exposure and historical reaction patterns
| Stock | Sensitivity | Expected Impact |
|---|---|---|
COIN Coinbase | High | ▲ Positive Revenue directly tied to crypto trading volumes and retail engagement. |
MSTR MicroStrategy | High | ▲ Positive Essentially a leveraged Bitcoin holding company. |
MARA MARA Holdings | High | ▲ Positive Bitcoin miner with high operating leverage to BTC price. |
RIOT Riot Platforms | High | ▲ Positive Large-scale Bitcoin miner; profitability highly levered to BTC price. |
Institutional Positioning
Source: SEC 13F filings · 45-day reporting lag · Educational research only
Net Direction
Neutral
Positions Tracked
50
13F Score
44/100
Recent 13F Changes (Last 90 Days)
COIN · COINBASE GLOBAL INC
$1.5B
position value
COIN · COINBASE GLOBAL INC
$1.2B
position value
COIN · COINBASE GLOBAL INC
$919.4M
position value
IBIT · ISHARES BITCOIN TRUST ETF
$837.3M
position value
COIN · COINBASE GLOBAL INC
$796.1M
position value
COIN · COINBASE GLOBAL INC
$790.9M
position value
COIN · COINBASE GLOBAL INC
$753.5M
position value
COIN · COINBASE GLOBAL INC
$577.5M
position value
COIN · COINBASE GLOBAL INC
$528.6M
position value
IBIT · ISHARES INC
$489.6M
position value
RIOT · RIOT PLATFORMS INC
$468.2M
position value
IBIT · ISHARES BITCOIN TRUST ETF - US ETP
$427.0M
position value
COIN · COINBASE GLOBAL INC
$414.3M
position value
COIN · COINBASE GLOBAL INC
$388.0M
position value
COIN · COINBASE GLOBAL INC
$367.1M
position value
Top Institutional Holders of Affected Assets
MSTR · MICROSTRATEGY INC
$8.5B
market value
MSTR · MICROSTRATEGY INC
$7.0B
market value
MSTR · MICROSTRATEGY INC
$6.7B
market value
COIN · COINBASE GLOBAL INC
$4.6B
market value
COIN · COINBASE GLOBAL INC
$3.3B
market value
MSTR · MICROSTRATEGY INC
$3.3B
market value
IBIT · ISHARES INC
$2.9B
market value
MSTR · MICROSTRATEGY INC
$2.7B
market value
IBIT · ISHARES BITCOIN TRUST ETF
$2.7B
market value
MSTR · STRATEGY INC
$2.6B
market value
Insider Activity
Source: SEC Form 4 filings · Corporate executives and directors · Educational research only
Form 4 insider data integration coming soon.
Corporate insider transactions (CEO, CFO, Directors) will be cross-referenced against affected tickers when available.
Congressional Activity
Source: STOCK Act disclosures · 45-day reporting window · Educational research only
No STOCK Act disclosures found for affected tickers in the past 90 days.
Congressional members have a 45-day window to report transactions.
AI Interpretation
Research synthesis across all available signals · Not investment advice
Prediction markets currently price this event at 0%, suggesting the crowd assigns low probability to this event. Institutional positioning across affected equities is neutral based on 50 tracked positions from public 13F filings. Overall signal alignment is classified as Weak Alignment, suggesting the information ecosystem is relatively mixed around this event. All data sourced from public disclosures. Educational research only — not investment advice.
Data Sources
Event Alerts
Get notified when the information ecosystem shifts around this event
Probability Spike
Market probability moves ±10pp
Institutional Rotation
Large 13F position changes in affected assets
Major Divergence
Market expects outcome; institutions disagree
Congressional Trade
New STOCK Act disclosure for affected tickers
Consensus Shift
Alignment label changes between sessions
New Event
High-probability event appears in your watchlist