Macro Health Score

Macro Health

Macro Health is a single 0–100 score that summarizes the macroeconomic backdrop each day. It is built entirely from public economic data — Federal Reserve (FRED) series and public market prices — using standard, published statistical methods. There is no black box: every input's contribution is stored and can be inspected.

The four pillars

Macro Health blends four sub-scores, each a direction-normalized read where higher means more supportive of risk assets:

• Growth — industrial production, retail sales, payroll trend, jobless claims, housing.
• Prices — the momentum of inflation measures and inflation expectations.
• Policy & Liquidity — the yield curve, central-bank balance sheet and money trends, and the dollar.
• Market Internals — volatility, credit spreads, and cross-asset trend.

Each indicator is measured against its own recent history, so the score reflects what is unusual *now* relative to the past few years.

Bands and market environment

The composite maps to five plain-language bands — Strain, Defensive, Mixed, Supportive, Exuberant — with "Exuberant" flagged as a caution rather than an all-clear. Growth and inflation direction together classify the current environment into one of four regimes: Expansion, Overheat, Squeeze, or Contraction. Rather than a single confident label, Macro Health always publishes the probability of each regime, plus an estimate of how likely the regime is to change soon.

Where you'll see it

Today, Macro Health powers the Macro Tailwind line on every Conviction Card. A dedicated Macro Health dashboard is on the way. The score refreshes daily.

Disclaimer: Macro Health is a statistical summary of public economic data for educational purposes. It is not a forecast, and it is not financial advice.